Hardcover: 368 pages
Publisher: Portfolio; First Edition edition (April 8, 2014)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1591846706
ISBN-13: 978-1591846703
Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 1.2 x 9.3 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars See all reviews (682 customer reviews)
Best Sellers Rank: #13,341 in Books (See Top 100 in Books) #2 in Books > Business & Money > International > Foreign Exchange #12 in Books > Business & Money > Economics > Money & Monetary Policy #14 in Books > Business & Money > International > Economics
The introduction suggests that this book is going to rehash some fairly common themes. Then, delightfully, the first chapters veers off on an unexpected tangent, followed by an equally astute, and unexpected second chapter.The introduction suggests that we are in for a time of either inflation or deflation, and that they are both equally dangerous. The thesis he repeats throughout the book is that central banks favor inflation for a number of reasons, but that they are having a hard time forcing inflation it to occur. There is simply too much slack in the economy in the form of unused labor, capital, and production capacity. Other authors argue that increases in productivity are inherently deflationary: if automation reduces the cost of manufacturing a car, competitive pressures will force manufacturers to sell them cheaper.The federal government must have inflation for four reasons. Deflation causes an increase in the real value of the federal debt. It has an adverse impact on the debt to GDP ratio. Third, although banks may benefit initially by being repaid more than they lent, the risk of default increases dramatically in a deflationary environment. The fourth and final problem with deflation is that it reduces federal tax income. As nominal earnings decrease, the tax rate schedules, which are graduated, yield less revenue in real terms. Though asset value may rise in real terms, you cannot tax capital gains unless the nominal value rises.Central banks throughout the world are fighting the tide as they work to promote inflation. The result of Quantitative Easing has been massive malinvestment by those to whom the newly coined money has been funneled.
This is a great book, the second I have read by James Rickards. He's written the previous best selling book, "Currency Wars". Mr. Rickards has had a career in varied realms, he has degrees in Int'l. Economics (went to grad school with the likes of Timothy Geitner) and several legal disciplines. He's a regular on many MSM including CNBC where I first saw him about 8 years ago. He's an insider in more ways than one. Six years ago he pointed out that China was bent on accumulating gold to diversify their assets (boy was he right). Then 3 years ago he began talking about plans to revive an old 1960's era monetary maneuver which he called "Operation Twist", sure enogh a couple of months later the Fed announced Operation Twist which entailed buying long term US Treasury debt and selling short term. So when Mr. Rickards speaks I sit up and listen. In this book he talks about what is bound to happen with our present US$ based monetary system, how to recognize what is happening and the various ways this could play out. None of the three scenarios is good for us here in the USA, however, there are ways to prepare for these eventualities, woe to the unprepared. One likely way this could play out is by the IMF assuming the task of issuing world currency in the guise of the SDR which was first issued in the 1970's and has once again been undergoing much expansion on their balance sheet since the 2008 near meltdown.“The next financial collapse will resemble nothing in history. . . . Deciding upon the best course to follow will require comprehending a minefield of risks, while poised at a crossroads, pondering the death of the dollar.”"The international monetary system has collapsed three times in the past hundred years, in 1914, 1939, and 1971.
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