Series: Wiley Trading (Book 78)
Hardcover: 272 pages
Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (March 11, 1999)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0471297224
ISBN-13: 978-0471297222
Product Dimensions: 7.2 x 0.7 x 10.3 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds
Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (47 customer reviews)
Best Sellers Rank: #999,255 in Books (See Top 100 in Books) #336 in Books > Business & Money > Investing > Commodities #798 in Books > Textbooks > Business & Finance > Investments & Securities #1422 in Books > Textbooks > Business & Finance > Finance
This book is an excellent example of why non-statisticians should be prohibited from writing books on statistical subjects.With some computer program and a bunch of historical data on the futures markets, Williams is able to find dozens upon dozen of trading systems which *would have* produced spectacular results if they had been followed. A fool will no doubt believe that this is the real deal, but the law of averages guarantees that future results applying the same rules to the same markets will produce equally spectacular losses. Markets change. Duh.More importantly, Williams breaks every law in the book regarding the design and testing of trading systems. He massively overfits his data to "profit spikes" and doesn't bother to forward-test any of his systems on data which they haven't yet seen. These alone are fatal flaws and guarantee the invalidity of the systems. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing... Even worse, the concept of statistical significance seems to be beyond Mr. Williams, who is even proud of his lack of mathematical ability. If enough systems are tested with enough data, one is bound to turn up cases where 80% or 90% of the trades would have been winners.If all that wasn't a big enough disaster, this book is littered with typos and inconsistencies -- places where one thing is said in one paragraph and then another thing is said in another, or appears to be the actual case in a related diagram. This makes the actual rules being profferrd difficult to discern at times. These flaws are simply inexcusable in a book costing this much and pretending to be of a professional caliber.
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