Series: Kenneth J. Arrow Lecture Series
Hardcover: 160 pages
Publisher: Columbia University Press; 1 edition (December 2, 2014)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0231163800
ISBN-13: 978-0231163804
Product Dimensions: 0.5 x 5 x 8 inches
Shipping Weight: 11.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
Best Sellers Rank: #157,314 in Books (See Top 100 in Books) #42 in Books > Business & Money > Insurance > Health #64 in Books > Business & Money > Economics > Econometrics #263 in Books > Business & Money > Economics > Theory
The backbone of the insurance industry is actuarial science. It is impossible to know whether any given car will be stolen or any given individual will get lung cancer. However, with a sufficiently large population, it is quite possible to estimate the statistical risk of such occurrences – which the insurance industry calls a hazard – to a near certainty. This allows the insurer to establish premium levels sufficient to make a profit from pooling these risks.Moral hazard is the difference between the actuarial risks in the uninsured pool and the actual claims history when those in the pool obtain insurance coverage. Experience shows that actual claims tend exceed an insurer’s actuarial assumptions for two reasons. First, there is typically an adverse selection in those seeking insurance. People are forward looking, so when they see themselves as especially likely to need insurance, they tend to be the first to seek it. Second, those with insurance coverage have less incentive to use preventive care, and this tends to result in higher loss experience than if they had not had insurance.For the most part, there is nothing immoral about moral hazard. Let’s face it, if you have a little workshop in your garage, it’s probably more important to have fire insurance. Similarly, if your wife discovers that breast cancer runs in her family, she’ll want to make sure she and her daughters have good health coverage. To the insurance company, these factors may represent an adverse selection, but from the standpoint of the insurance seeker it’s just common sense.As for changed behavior when one obtains insurance, the whole purpose of insurance is to make an unacceptable risk more acceptable.
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